040 
WTPZ44 KNHC 150846
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
200 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025
 
Dalila is likely near its peak intensity, with little change in
organization evident since the previous advisory package. The latest
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 65
knots and 55 knots, respectively. Objective estimates ranged from
45 to 57 knots, while an ASCAT pass earlier in the day showed
numerous 50 knot wind barbs. Based on a blend of these data, the
initial intensity for this advisory has been held at 55 knots.
 
Dalila is now heading toward the west-northwest, or 285/12 knots. A
turn toward the west is expected during the next day or so, as 
Dalila is steered by a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the 
southwest U.S. A westward to slightly south of due west motion is 
then forecast through dissipation as Dalila moves over much
cooler waters. The current forecast shows Dalila becoming a
post-tropical remnant low in a day or so, and dissipating by 
Tuesday. The latest track forecast is very close to that of the 
previous advisory, and is close to the track consensus aids.

Dalila should begin to weaken later today as some drier mid-level
air evident in water vapor imagery begins to impact the system.  
More steady weakening is then likely as the system moves
over much cooler water and into a progressively drier mid-level
environment. The latest intensity forecast is close to the previous
advisory and in good agreement with the intensity consensus
guidance.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy 
rainfall to the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero through 
this morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are 
expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.
 
2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the warning area during the next few hours.  Winds 
will diminish today while the system moves farther offshore of the 
coast of southwestern Mexico.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 18.0N 107.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 18.3N 108.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 18.4N 110.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  16/1800Z 18.0N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/0600Z 17.8N 113.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  17/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Pasch