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Tropical Storm MADELINE Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 270250
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142016
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Satellite images shows that the cyclone has an impressive band
on the west side of the circulation wrapping at least halfway
around the center.  Microwave data also shows an improved inner
core structure, although perhaps the vertical alignment is a bit
tilted due to northeasterly shear.  Satellite intensity estimates
range between 30 to 35 kt, and with the increased satellite
presentation since the last advisory, the wind speed is set to 35
kt for this cycle.

Madeline will be moving over SSTs above 27C and in a low-to-moderate
easterly shear environment for the next 2 to 3 days. This should
allow for steady intensification, and the NHC forecast shows the
cyclone becoming a hurricane in about 2 days.  Later in the forecast
period the SSTs cool and the mid-level atmosphere dries out
somewhat, which should induce a weakening trend.  The guidance is a
little higher than 6 hours ago, and the latest NHC intensity
forecast follows the trend, remaining close to or a little below the
IVCN consensus through the period.

Satellite fixes continue to show an initial motion of 295/10.
Madeline should move generally west-northwestward for the next few
days around a subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific.  The
cyclone is expected to take a westward turn at long range due to a
new ridge building in over the Central Pacific.  Models are not in
great agreement on exactly when that turn will take place, and the
details of the motion appear to be related to exactly how strong
Madeline becomes.  Overall, the model guidance has shifted a little
bit to the north on this forecast cycle, and the latest NHC
prediction is adjusted in that direction at days 4 and 5.

It is too early to determine what, if any, impacts this cyclone
could have on the Hawaiian Islands near the end of the forecast
period.  It is important to remind users that the average 5-day
track forecast error for eastern Pacific tropical cyclones is about
170 miles.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 13.9N 137.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 14.6N 138.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 15.4N 139.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 16.1N 141.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 17.0N 142.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  30/0000Z 18.5N 145.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  31/0000Z 19.5N 149.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  01/0000Z 19.5N 153.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake