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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 222044
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Recent ASCAT data confirmed that the depression has not become any
better organized and that the low-level center is on the southern
edge of the main convection. T-numbers have remain either steady or
decrease slightly, so the initial intensity has been kept at 30 kt
at this time.  Despite the current lack of organization, the cyclone
is expected to be in a very favorable environment of low shear and
over warm waters. With these conditions, I have no option but to
forecast strengthening. This process will probably be slow during
the next day or so, but after that time, the cyclone should
strengthen at a faster pace and become a hurricane. This follows the
latest intensity guidance which suggest that the most rapid increase
in the winds should occur beyond 48 hours.

The depression appears to be moving toward the west-northwest or
290 degrees at 11 kt. The steering pattern has not changed, and
global models continue to forecast a strong ridge extending from
Mexico westward across the Pacific. This flow pattern will keep the
cyclone on the same general west-northwestward track for the next 5
days, as indicated by the general guidance. This solution is not
different from the previous NHC track forecasts which have been
keeping the core of the cyclone well south of the coast of Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 10.5N  99.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 11.2N 100.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 12.2N 102.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 13.0N 104.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 13.7N 105.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 15.0N 109.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 16.5N 113.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 17.5N 116.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila