Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion
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000 WTPZ43 KNHC 090235 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 800 PM MST Sun Jun 08 2025 Cosme is gradually improving in organization with deep convection pulsing, albeit with the center on the northern edge of the convection. A recent microwave pass did show a prominent curved band especially in the southern semicircle of the storm. The initial wind speed will stay at 40 kt for this advisory, between the lower subjective Dvorak estimates and higher objective values. Conditions look conducive for strengthening for about the next 24 hours while Cosme moves within a fairly low shear and warm SST environment. Thereafter, some increase in easterly shear is possible, and the storm should move over a tight SST gradient into a drier airmass. Cosme is forecast to respond to these conditions by weakening quickly by midweek. The only change to the previous forecast is a small reduction in the intensity forecast at 60 and 72 h, consistent with the latest model consensus. It would not be surprising to see Cosme become a remnant low faster than shown below. The storm continues moving northwestward at 8 kt, and a west-northwest to northwest motion is anticipated during the next day or so. After that time, Tropical Storm Barbara causes a mid-level ridge to erode, and Cosme should respond by taking a sharp turn to the northeast around Barbara. Model guidance has shifted notably to the left this evening, suggesting a little more separation of the tropical cyclones before they interact. While the new forecast is adjusted to the west, this is not a particularly confident longer-range forecast due to the complexity of the interaction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 13.7N 111.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 14.4N 112.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 14.9N 114.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 15.3N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 15.8N 113.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 16.9N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 18.5N 113.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake