000
WTPZ43 KNHC 091437
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
800 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025
 
Cosme continues to become better organized this morning, with a 
recent 0936Z/GPM pass indicating a partially closed eyewall 
structure. The most recent subjective Dvorak intensity estimates 
from TAFB and SAB were both T3.5/55 kt. Meanwhile, the objective 
satellite estimates range from 48 to 61 knots. Given the improved 
structure noted in microwave imagery, along with a blend of the 
objective and subjective intensity estimates, the initial intensity 
for this advisory has been increased to 55 kt.

Cosme is moving toward the west-northwest at 6 kt, and this general 
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north and a 
slowing in forward speed is expected tonight, as Barbara erodes the 
mid-level ridge to the north of Cosme. A turn toward the 
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast 
Tuesday through Wednesday as Cosme is swept northward into the break 
in the mid-level ridge created by Barbara. The latest track forecast 
is very close to that of the previous advisory and is generally a 
blend of the consensus guidance.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening 
during the next 12 hours or so. Vertical wind shear is forecast to 
decrease, while water temperatures hold around 27/28C, and deep 
layer atmospheric moisture remains high. As a result, the official 
forecast calls for Cosme to become a hurricane later today. Little 
change in strength is then forecast tonight and Tuesday despite 
Cosme remaining over warm water, as increasing vertical wind shear 
and gradually decreasing deep-layer moisture should inhibit further 
intensification. Beginning Tuesday night and Wednesday, a more rapid 
weakening is forecast as the system moves over much cooler water, 
with Cosme expected to dissipate by 96 hours.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/1500Z 14.5N 113.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 14.8N 114.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 15.2N 114.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 15.8N 113.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 17.0N 113.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  12/0000Z 18.5N 113.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/1200Z 19.6N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi