000
WTPZ43 KNHC 101434
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025
 
Moderate northeasterly shear appears to be displacing Cosme's deep 
convection to the southwestern quadrant of the circulation.  
Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have begun 
to decrease, and a blend of these data support an initial intensity 
of 55 kt.  The shear affecting the cyclone is not expected to abate 
during the next 24 hours, and with Cosme already seeming to be 
ingesting more stable air, continued weakening is likely over the 
next day or two.  In fact, simulated satellite imagery from the 
GFS, ECMWF, and high-resolution hurricane models all suggest that 
Cosme's deep convection could dissipate by tonight, and the NHC 
forecast therefore shows the cyclone becoming post-tropical in 24 
hours.  After that time, continued weakening is forecast while the 
remnant low moves over colder waters, and dissipation is expected 
by Friday.

Due to its position to the southwest of Barbara, Cosme's motion has 
slowed down considerably, and it is estimated to be moving toward 
the northwest (325 deg) at about 3 kt.  While the interaction with 
Barbara continues, Cosme is expected to turn toward the north and 
north-northeast and accelerate a bit over the next day or two.  The 
new NHC forecast is not too different from the previous prediction, 
and perhaps shows more of a bend back to the northwest around 60 
hours, following the latest consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/1500Z 15.5N 114.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 15.8N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 16.6N 113.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  12/0000Z 17.8N 113.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/1200Z 18.8N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  13/0000Z 19.6N 114.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg/Gibbs