785 
WTPZ43 KNHC 081434
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
800 AM MST Sun Jun 08 2025

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the area of low pressure 
well southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico have shown 
considerable improvement this morning. Well-organized curved bands 
have been present during the last 6-12 hours with deep convection 
building near the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak 
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB came in at 1.5/25 kt and 
2.0/30 kt, respectively. Additionally, overnight satellite-derived 
wind data showed 30 kt winds in the northwest quadrant of the low 
pressure area. Given the improved convective organization and data 
suggesting maximum sustained winds of 30 kt, Tropical Depression 
Three-E has now formed with the initial intensity set at 30 kt. 

The initial motion of Tropical Depression Three-E is set at 310/07 
kt. This general motion is expected to continue today and tonight, 
followed by a much more uncertain motion Monday through mid-week due 
to the expected interaction with Tropical Storm Barbara. This 
interaction will likely result in a decrease in forward speed and a 
more northward to northeastward motion on Monday, followed by an 
increase in forward speed and a shift back to the northwest by 
Tuesday. The track forecast generally follows the consensus 
guidance, which is in between the two extremes of the GFS and ECMWF 
models.

Tropical Depression Three-E is forecast to remain in a low to 
moderate vertical wind shear environment with warm sea surface 
temperatures of 27 to 28C and abundant deep layer moisture during 
the next couple days. This should allow for steady strengthening, 
and the system will likely become a tropical storm later today. By 
Monday night, the tropical cyclone will begin to move over much 
cooler water below 26C, and this in combination with the interaction 
with Barbara should result in rather rapid weakening, with the 
system becoming a post-tropical remnant low by Thursday morning. The 
intensity forecast is roughly a split of the statistical and 
dynamical consensus guidance.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 12.6N 110.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 13.3N 111.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 14.2N 112.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 14.7N 113.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 15.2N 114.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  11/0000Z 15.7N 113.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 16.9N 113.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 18.3N 114.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi