Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 281432
TCDEP3

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Rapid intensification of Jimena continues this morning.  Microwave
data has shown an eye beneath the central dense overcast, and a
more definitive eye is just now becoming apparent in infrared
satellite imagery.  With subjective Dvorak estimates of T4.5/77 kt
from TAFB and SAB, and an objective estimate of T4.6/80 kt from
UW-CIMSS, Jimena's initial intensity is raised to 80 kt.

Jimena is expected to remain in an environment of low shear and
over warm water for the duration of the forecast period.  Mid-level
moisture is high at the moment and is expected to only gradually
decrease during the next 2 to 3 days.  The SHIPS Rapid
Intensification Index (RII) is showing a 54 percent chance of a
30-kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours.  Therefore, a
continuation of RI appears likely and is explicitly shown in the NHC
intensity forecast.  A peak intensity is expected in about 48 hours,
followed by gradual weakening through day 5 due to a slightly drier
environment and lower oceanic heat content values.  The updated NHC
intensity forecast is generally a blend of the previous forecast
with the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance.  It should be noted that
once Jimena reaches its peak as a major hurricane, fluctuations in
intensity that deviate from the official forecast are likely due to
possible eyewall replacements.

Jimena appears to have slowed down a bit, and the initial motion is
270/10 kt.  The hurricane remains to the south of an anomalously
strong ridge that extends southwestward from the southwestern
United States, and this feature is expected to keep Jimena on a
westward course for the next 24 hours.  After that time, the ridge
is expected to weaken, which will allow Jimena to turn
west-northwestward through day 5.  The track guidance remains in
good agreement and very close to the previous forecast.  Therefore,
no significant changes are noted in the updated NHC track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 12.4N 122.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 12.4N 123.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 12.6N 125.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 13.2N 127.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 14.1N 129.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  31/1200Z 15.9N 133.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  01/1200Z 17.0N 138.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  02/1200Z 17.5N 140.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg



Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 28-Aug-2015 14:32:21 UTC