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Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 310858
TCDEP3

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
200 AM PDT WED AUG 31 2016

Lester continues to display a distinct 20 nm diameter eye in the
middle of a symmetric eyewall with no banding features.  Subjective
Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB remain at 6.5 and 6.0
current intensity numbers, respectively, while the CIMSS Advanced
Dvorak Technique is at 6.6.  A blend of these gives 120 kt maximum
winds at the initial time, the same as previously indicated.

Lester is anticipated to experience quite low vertical shear for the
next few days, though the lukewarm SSTs and about 40 percent
humidity air are only marginally conducive for maintaining high
intensities. The current convective structure and its environment
suggest that Lester may have evolved into an annular hurricane,
which tends to weaken only slowly over time.  The 00Z intensity
model guidance has backed off some from the 18Z model suite. The NHC
intensity forecast - slightly lower than that in the previous
advisory - is closest to the SHIPS model through 48 hours and the
HWRF thereafter.

Lester is moving toward the west at about 10 kt.  A large
subtropical ridge to its north is providing the westward steering
and low shear environment.  The tightly packed model guidance
indicate that the system should turn slightly toward the
west-northwest during the next few days at about the same rate of
forward speed.  The NHC track forecast is based upon the TVCN
multi-model consensus technique and is slightly south of the track
from the previous advisory.

A 0604Z ASCAT scatterometer pass indicated little change was needed
for the initial 34- and 50-kt wind radii.  The NHC wind radii
forecast is based upon the RVCN consensus technique and nearly the
same as that from the last advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0900Z 17.7N 137.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 17.7N 139.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 18.0N 141.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 18.3N 143.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 18.9N 145.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 20.2N 151.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 21.8N 156.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 24.0N 161.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea