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Tropical Storm LESTER Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 260245
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
900 PM MDT THU AUG 25 2016

Satellite images reveal that the cloud pattern has not changed very
much during the past several hours, and deep convection is not as
strong as earlier today. Some arc clouds have been moving away from
the cyclone, suggesting that Lester is not intensifying at this
time. This is confirmed by the latest Dvorak estimates which
still lead to an intensity of 50 kt. Nevertheless, Lester's
upper-level outflow is well established and, with low shear and
warm waters in its future path, strengthening is in order.
Thus, Lester is forecast to become a hurricane in a day or so. By
the end of the forecast period, cooler waters should induce gradual
weakening. The NHC forecast is basically the same as the previous
one.

Lester has slowed down a little bit and is now moving toward the
west or 270 degrees at 5 kt. The cyclone should resume a west-
northwest track soon toward a current weakness of the ridge.
However, in about 2 days, the ridge should amplify and build
westward, and this pattern should steer Lester westward through
the rest of the forecast period. Given that the steering currents
are expected to be very well established, tracks models are
in very good agreement. The NHC forecast follows the multi-model
consensus and has not deviated very much from the previous official
prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 17.0N 113.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 17.4N 114.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 17.8N 115.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 18.0N 117.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 18.0N 119.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  29/0000Z 18.5N 124.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  30/0000Z 18.5N 129.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  31/0000Z 18.5N 134.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila