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Tropical Storm GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion

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WTPZ43 KNHC 230833

200 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Georgette's convective canopy has expanded and become a little more
symmetric over the past few hours.  An 0515 UTC AMSU pass revealed a
mid-level microwave eye, but this feature appeared to be displaced
to the west of the low-level center by more than half a degree of
longitude.  Based on Dvorak estimates of T3.5 from TAFB and SAB,
the initial intensity remains 55 kt.

SHIPS guidance indicates that a little more than 15 kt of easterly
shear is still affecting Georgette.  However, the shear is expected
to gradually diminish, falling below 10 kt in 18-24 hours, and sea
surface temperatures should remain higher than 26C for about the
next 48 hours.  Therefore, slow strengthening is anticipated at
first, with a faster intensification rate likely once the shear
has abated.  Since little to no shear is expected in 36-48 hours,
the NHC intensity forecast is at the top end of the guidance
spectrum, closest to the HWRF model.  After 48 hours, steady
weakening is anticipated due to cooler SSTs, increasing shear, and
a drier atmosphere.

The low-level center has been tough to locate tonight, so an
initial motion of 290/11 kt is maintained for continuity's sake.
The strong mid-level ridge to the north of Georgette is expected to
weaken and shift to a position between California and Hawaii during
the next few days.  Georgette should therefore turn northwestward
and slow down after 36 hours.  There is very little spread among
the track guidance during the entire forecast period, and the
updated NHC track forecast is nudged a little north and east of the
previous forecast in deference to the GFS and ECMWF models, which
lie on the right-hand side of the guidance envelope.


INIT  23/0900Z 13.5N 120.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 14.0N 121.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 14.8N 123.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 15.8N 125.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 16.7N 126.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 18.0N 128.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 19.0N 130.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 20.0N 132.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

Forecaster Berg