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Tropical Storm LESTER Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 252038
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
300 PM MDT THU AUG 25 2016

The cloud pattern of Lester has become only slightly better
organized than earlier today.  Taking the mean of Dvorak estimates
from TAFB and SAB leads to a current intensity estimate of 50 kt.
An upper-level cyclonic shear axis just to the northwest of the
storm is clearly evident in water vapor imagery, and this feature is
somewhat impeding Lester's outflow to the north.  Overall,
however, the atmospheric and oceanic environment should be conducive
for strengthening with low shear and a sufficiently warm ocean
during the next several days.  The NHC intensity forecast shows
Lester becoming a hurricane within 24 hours, with additional
intensification after that time frame.  Late in the forecast
period, marginal SSTs should halt the strengthening process.  The
official intensity forecast is fairly close to the multi-model
consensus, IVCN.

The storm is slowing down a bit and the initial motion is about
295/9.  A slight weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of
Lester is expected to cause some further deceleration during the
next day or two.  Later in the forecast period, a stronger ridge
should induce a westward motion at a faster forward speed.  The
official track forecast is similar to the previous one and about in
the middle of the dynamical guidance suite.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 16.9N 113.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 17.3N 114.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 17.7N 115.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 18.0N 118.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 18.0N 123.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 18.0N 128.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  30/1800Z 18.0N 133.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch