854 
WTPZ43 KNHC 100231
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
800 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025

Cosme remains at the threshold of hurricane strength.  Convection 
continues to be potent south and east of the center, though it is 
weak on the northwestern side.  Unfortunately there haven't been any 
recent microwave passes to assess the inner-core structure.  Since 
the latest blend of objective and subjective satellite intensity 
estimates remains near 60 kt, that value will be kept as the 
initial wind speed.  

Cosme is moving along a thermal ridge in the SSTs, and it still 
could become a hurricane overnight before reaching less favorable 
conditions tomorrow morning.  Steady or rapid weakening is probable 
by late Tuesday due to a combination of decreasing SSTs and 
intrusions of dry/stable air.  The tropical cyclone should lose all 
convection early on Wednesday and become a remnant low between 36 
and 48 h.  No significant changes were made on this advisory to the 
intensity forecast.
 
The storm has slowed down, only moving northwestward at 3 kt, and 
this general motion should continue through tonight. After that 
time, a turn to the north-northeast is expected as Cosme moves 
toward a weakness left behind by Hurricane Barbara to its northeast. 
 The NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one, 
near or a smidge left of the consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 15.2N 114.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 15.5N 114.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 15.9N 114.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 16.9N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 18.2N 113.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/1200Z 19.3N 113.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake