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Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Discussion

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WTPZ43 KNHC 281442

800 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

Marie has continued to produce a small area of convection south and
east of the center for the past few hours, but the tops have been
warming recently. The initial intensity is set at 40 kt, a bit above
the latest satellite classifications. Deep convection should
dissipate shortly now that Marie is moving over SSTs around 22C, and
Marie should become post-tropical by tonight. Gradual weakening is
expected during the forecast period, as it will take the large
circulation some time to spin down even without convection. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one.

The initial motion estimate is 310/13. A general northwestward
motion is expected for the next couple of days while the cyclone
remains under the influence of a mid-level ridge centered near the
coast of southern California. Marie is forecast to slow down
considerably and turn westward and west-southwestward by the end of
the period as it is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous one after adjustment for the
initial position and motion.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal
flooding around the time of high tide.


INIT  28/1500Z 25.4N 128.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 26.7N 130.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 28.2N 132.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/0000Z 29.4N 134.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/1200Z 30.3N 135.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/1200Z 30.8N 137.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1200Z 30.7N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/1200Z 30.0N 140.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Brennan

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Page last modified: Thursday, 28-Aug-2014 14:42:57 UTC