Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Post-Tropical Cyclone CARLOS Forecast Discussion


Home   Public Adv   Discussion   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 172033
TCDEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
400 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

The center of the small low-level circulation of Carlos is difficult
to locate, but it appears in visible satellite imagery to be located
near Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Organized deep convection has been
absent from the center for more than six hours, and what little
convection that exists is quite shallow and is being disrupted by
the rugged terrain of western Mexico. On this basis, Carlos is being
designated as a remnant low, and advisories are being discontinued
at this time. Steady weakening of the vortex is expected to continue
during the next day or so due to unfavorable thermodynamic
conditions, and global model guidance shows degenerating into an
open trough by Thursday.  The NHC forecast, therefore, calls for
dissipation within the next 24 hours.

The initial motion estimate remains 330/06 kt. For the next 24
hours, the remnant circulation of Carlos should continue to move
slowly north-northwestward around the western periphery of a weak
mid-level ridge that is located over central and eastern Mexico, and
move into the southern Gulf of California by Thursday morning where
dissipation of the system is expected.

For additional information on this remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEP1 and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 20.2N 105.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 20.7N 106.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 17-Jun-2015 20:33:23 UTC