Skip Navigation Links   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion

Home   Public Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  

WTPZ43 KNHC 011438

800 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2015

Enhanced BD-Curve infrared images and an earlier microwave
overpass from the Global Precipitation Measurement satellite
continue to show the presence of a double eyewall structure with
evidence of erosion of Jimena's inner eyewall in the southern
portion.  Since the overall presentation reveals decay of the
eyewall, the initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt and is based on
a blend of the TAFB and SAB Current and Final-T numbers. Although
the sea surface temperatures are expected to remain relatively warm
ahead of the cyclone through at least day 4, and westerly shear does
not appear to affect Jimena until near the end of the period, a
marginal thermodynamic atmosphere is most likely the cause of the
weakening trend that has commenced.  The intensity forecast is
basically an update of the previous one and is weighed heavily on
the SHIPS model and the HWRF.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or, 290/9 kt.  Jimena has
made its expected turn toward the west-northwest and is now moving
toward a growing weakness in the subtropical ridge.  A subsequent
turn toward the northwestward and north-northwestward is forecast by
the 48 hour period and through the end of the period.  The NHC
forecast is nudged slightly to the right of the previous package and
sides with the TVCX multi-model consensus.

Jimena has moved into the Central Pacific basin.  Therefore, this is
the last advisory on this system by the National Hurricane Center.
Subsequent advisories will be issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.


INIT  01/1500Z 16.9N 140.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 17.3N 141.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 17.8N 142.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 18.3N 142.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 18.8N 143.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 19.9N 144.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 21.5N 144.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 23.4N 146.2W   55 KT  65 MPH

Forecaster Roberts

Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 01-Sep-2015 14:38:46 UTC