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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERNAN Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 291439
TCDEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

GOES-15 shortwave infrared imagery shows that Hernan's surface
circulation has become elongated (north to south) and ill-defined.
The post-tropical cyclone has been devoid of significant deep
convection for over 12 hours, and regeneration is not likely due to
sea surface temperature of less than 24 deg C.  The winds associated
with the remnant low should continue to decrease, with dissipation
of the system expected in a couple of days.

The initial motion has been along a persistent west-northwest
direction, or 300/13 kt, within the low- to mid-level flow on the
periphery of the subtropical ridge to the northeast.  This general
motion should continue until the system dissipates in 48 hours.  The
NHC forecast is similar to that from the previous package and
follows the TVCE consensus.

This is the last NHC advisory on this system.  For additional
information on the remnant low of Hernan, please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 23.5N 121.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 24.3N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/1200Z 24.9N 123.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  31/0000Z 25.4N 125.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts




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Page last modified: Tuesday, 29-Jul-2014 14:39:25 UTC