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Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 270250
TCDEP3

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016

The satellite presentation has been gradually improving during
the past few hours, and an eye became evident on the 0200 UTC
night visible image. A convective ring was also observed on the last
SSMI microwave pass at 2344 UTC.  On this basis, and a Dvorak
estimate from TAFB, the initial wind speed has been increased to 65
kt. Additional intensification is anticipated during the next 2 to 3
days while the cyclone continues to move over warm waters and
is embedded within light shear.  By the end of the forecast period,
Lester will probably begin to weaken due to entrainment of drier
air. The NHC forecast follows very closely the model consensus, and
shows Lester as a hurricane moving into the Central Pacific in about
5 days.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 280
degrees at 8 kt. Lester is embedded within a deep-layer easterly
flow on the south side of an amplifying subtropical ridge extending
from the Baja California peninsula westward across the Pacific. This
pattern strongly favors the continuation of a westward motion for
the next five days with some increase in forward speed. The steering
flow is forecast to be so well established that track models are
basically on top of each other, increasing the confidence in the
forecast. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the tighter-than-
normal guidance envelope, and does not deviate much from the
previous NHC prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 17.9N 116.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 18.0N 117.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 18.1N 119.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 18.2N 122.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 18.2N 124.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  30/0000Z 18.5N 130.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  31/0000Z 18.5N 136.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  01/0000Z 18.0N 140.8W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila