Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion
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000 WTPZ43 KNHC 091437 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 800 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025 Cosme continues to become better organized this morning, with a recent 0936Z/GPM pass indicating a partially closed eyewall structure. The most recent subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T3.5/55 kt. Meanwhile, the objective satellite estimates range from 48 to 61 knots. Given the improved structure noted in microwave imagery, along with a blend of the objective and subjective intensity estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory has been increased to 55 kt. Cosme is moving toward the west-northwest at 6 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north and a slowing in forward speed is expected tonight, as Barbara erodes the mid-level ridge to the north of Cosme. A turn toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast Tuesday through Wednesday as Cosme is swept northward into the break in the mid-level ridge created by Barbara. The latest track forecast is very close to that of the previous advisory and is generally a blend of the consensus guidance. Environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening during the next 12 hours or so. Vertical wind shear is forecast to decrease, while water temperatures hold around 27/28C, and deep layer atmospheric moisture remains high. As a result, the official forecast calls for Cosme to become a hurricane later today. Little change in strength is then forecast tonight and Tuesday despite Cosme remaining over warm water, as increasing vertical wind shear and gradually decreasing deep-layer moisture should inhibit further intensification. Beginning Tuesday night and Wednesday, a more rapid weakening is forecast as the system moves over much cooler water, with Cosme expected to dissipate by 96 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 14.5N 113.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 14.8N 114.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 15.2N 114.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 15.8N 113.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 17.0N 113.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 18.5N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z 19.6N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi