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Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 282035
TCDEP3

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 28 2016

The cloud pattern has not changed very much during the day and the
convection has been fluctuating in intensity. Occasionally, an eye
feature has been observed on conventional imagery. Dvorak estimates,
both objective and subjective, have not changed since this morning
and still support an initial intensity of 75 kt.

The shear environment appears to be favorable for Lester to
intensify, but SSTs along the hurricane track are decreasing
slightly. Given these two opposing factors, the NHC forecast
calls for no change in intensity during the next 5 days. This
forecast follows very closely the intensity consensus model.

Lester is moving westward or 270 degrees at 11 kt. The hurricane is
embedded within a deep layer of easterly flow on the south side of a
persistent subtropical ridge across the Pacific. Given the well
established steering flow, the track guidance continues to be
tightly packed, and this increases the confidence in the future
motion of the hurricane. The NHC forecast is very similar to the
previous one and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus
TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 17.8N 124.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 17.8N 126.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 18.0N 129.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 18.0N 132.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 18.0N 134.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  31/1800Z 18.0N 139.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 18.5N 143.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  02/1800Z 19.5N 148.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila