Skip Navigation Links   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion

Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  

WTPZ43 KNHC 312034

200 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

Jimena continues to exhibit a concentric eyewall structure around a
20 n mi diameter eye.  The cloud tops have warmed a little during
the past few hours, and the overall satellite presentation is not
quite as impressive as it was several hours ago.  The Dvorak Final
T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have decreased slightly, and the initial
wind speed is lowered a little to 125 kt.

The hurricane is still moving westward at about 14 kt, which is a
little faster than previously predicted.  A mid-level high pressure
system located to the north of the tropical cyclone should continue
to steer Jimena west-northwestward in the short term, but this ridge
is expected to weaken during the next day or two in response to an
amplification of a mid- to upper- level trough extending
southwestward from the western United States. This pattern change
should cause the steering currents around Jimena to weaken,
resulting in a gradual northwestward turn with a dramatic decrease
in forward speed after 48 hours. The track model guidance has
shifted a little to the left and is slightly faster than earlier,
and the new NHC track forecast follows that theme.

Jimena is likely to fluctuate in intensity during the next 12 to 24
hours while it remains embedded in a very low wind shear environment
and over 28 deg C waters.  After that time, a slow weakening is
expected while SSTs decrease along the forecast track.  The NHC
intensity forecast is just an update of the previous one and remains
on the high side of the intensity guidance, giving some weight to
the global models which maintain a very strong cyclone for the next
several days.


INIT  31/2100Z 15.9N 136.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 16.4N 138.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 17.1N 140.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 17.6N 141.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 18.2N 142.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 19.2N 143.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 20.2N 144.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 21.6N 144.7W   70 KT  80 MPH

Forecaster Cangialosi

Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Aug-2015 20:35:13 UTC