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Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Discussion

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WTPZ43 KNHC 221432

800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Marie continues to become better organized, with abundant deep
convection and banding features in all quadrants.  Additionally,
water vapor imagery shows that the upper-level outflow is becoming
increasingly well defined.  The current intensity estimate is set at
45 kt in general agreement with objective Dvorak estimates from
UW/CIMSS.  Since the tropical cyclone will be moving through an
environment of low shear and very warm waters for the next several
days, continued strengthening seems inevitable.  Marie should become
a hurricane within 24 hours and will likely attain at least Category
3 status during the forecast period.  This is suggested even by the
global models such as the GFS, which predicts that Marie will deepen
below 950 mb in a few days.  The official wind speed forecast, which
could be conservative, is based on a blend of the objective
intensity guidance.

The storm is moving west-northwestward or 290/15 kt.  The
steering/track forecast scenario appears to be straightforward at
this time.  Over the next several days, Marie should move along the
southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge that will
be building westward from northern Mexico.  The dynamical track
forecast models are tightly clustered, and the official forecast is
very close to the model consensus.  This is essentially an update of
the previous NHC forecast.


INIT  22/1500Z 13.1N 102.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 13.6N 103.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 14.4N 105.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 15.2N 107.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 15.9N 109.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 17.5N 113.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 19.5N 117.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 21.5N 121.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

Forecaster Pasch

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Page last modified: Friday, 22-Aug-2014 14:32:30 UTC