Skip Navigation Links   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion

Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  

WTPZ43 KNHC 271441

800 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

Convective cloud tops associated with Marie continue to warm and
recent microwave imagery shows the inner-core convection becoming
less organized.  The initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt, which
is a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from
TAFB and SAB and objective ADT CI numbers from UW-CIMSS. Marie will
be moving over progressively cooler water and into a more stable
environment during the next 24 to 36 hours. This should result in
continued weakening and Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical
cyclone within 36 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 290/12 kt.  A west-northwestward
motion should continue today, followed by a turn toward the
northwest while the cyclone moves around the southwestern periphery
of a mid-level high off the coast of the northern Baja Peninsula.
After the system becomes shallow, it is expected to turn westward
and then west-southwestward in northeasterly low-level flow.  The
model guidance has trended toward a somewhat faster motion of Marie
during the first few days of the forecast period.  The NHC forecast
has been adjusted accordingly and is close to the model consensus.

Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja
California peninsula and the southern California coast.  These
swells are expected to persist for another day or so and are likely
to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor
coastal flooding around the time of high tide.


INIT  27/1500Z 22.3N 123.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 23.3N 125.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 24.8N 128.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 26.4N 130.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  29/1200Z 28.0N 132.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1200Z 30.0N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/1200Z 30.0N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1200Z 29.5N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Brown

Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 27-Aug-2014 14:41:24 UTC