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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 301441
TCDEP3

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Infrared satellite images and a recent GCOM microwave pass indicate
that there is still some evidence of a double eyewall structure.
The southern portion of Jimena's inner eyewall has eroded a little
during the past few hours, causing a slightly asymmetric
presentation.  The initial wind speed is maintained at 115 kt, based
on a blend of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and
ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, though it is
possible that Jimena could be a little less intense.

The atmospheric environment is expected to remain conducive for
Jimena to remain a strong cyclone for the next several days as
the SHIPS model shows the wind shear remaining less than 10 kt.  The
only negative environmental factor is cooler water with lower
oceanic heat content along the expected track.  Most of the guidance
shows a slow decay of the hurricane during the next several days,
and the NHC intensity forecast follows that theme.  This forecast
is in best agreement with the SHIPS model.

Jimena is moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt steered by a
subtropical ridge to its north and northeast.  This general motion
is expected to persist for another day or two.  After that time,
the hurricane is expected to decelerate in response to weakening
steering currents caused by an amplifying trough extending
southwestward from the western United States.  The new track
forecast is adjusted a little to the right of the previous one to
come in better agreement with the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF
models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 14.2N 129.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 14.9N 131.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 15.6N 134.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 16.2N 136.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 16.8N 138.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 17.7N 140.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 18.5N 142.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 19.2N 143.4W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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Page last modified: Sunday, 30-Aug-2015 14:41:56 UTC