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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Discussion

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WTPZ43 KNHC 092037

200 PM PDT FRI OCT 09 2015

The depression has not changed much since the previous advisory. The
associated deep convection is organized in a curved band to the
north and west of the center with a more linear swath of clouds a
couple of hundred n mi to the northeast of the center.  The Dvorak
classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT remain 2.0/30 kt,
and a recent ASCAT pass also showed winds around that value.  Based
on these data, the initial wind speed remains 30 kt.

The depression is moving westward at about 14 kt steered by a
subtropical ridge to its north.  This general heading with a
decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 2-3 days while
the ridge weakens.  After that time, a turn toward the north and
then northeast is predicted when the system becomes embedded in the
flow ahead of a large trough.  The official track forecast is a
little to the south of the previous one in the short term, mainly
due to the more southward initial motion, and then slightly to the
east of the previous track to come into better agreement with the
latest models.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
strengthening during the next few days, and accordingly most of the
guidance shows the cyclone intensifying.  The SHIPS model shows the
shear increasing in 4 to 5 days, and that, along with more stable
air and decreasing SSTs, should end the strengthening trend and
induce weakening.  The official intensity forecast is unchanged from
the previous one, and remains near the high end of the guidance.


INIT  09/2100Z 10.9N 133.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 11.1N 135.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 11.4N 137.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 11.6N 140.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 11.8N 141.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 12.5N 144.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  13/1800Z 14.3N 144.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 17.3N 143.2W   70 KT  80 MPH

Forecaster Cangialosi

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Page last modified: Friday, 09-Oct-2015 20:38:08 UTC