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Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 290853
TCDEP3

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
200 AM PDT MON AUG 29 2016

Lester has made a comeback.  A ragged eye that had formed around the
time of the last advisory has cleared out and warmed significantly.
The hurricane's central dense overcast has also expanded and become
more axisymmetric while the cyclone has shed its outer bands.
Overall, the characteristics exhibited by Lester are those that
typify annular hurricanes.  The Dvorak T-number from TAFB increased
to T5.5/102 kt at 0600 UTC, with the latest UW-CIMSS ADT values
around T5.4/100 kt.  Given these data, the initial intensity
estimate is raised to 100 kt, making Lester the fourth major
hurricane of the 2016 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.

The initial motion estimate is 270/13.  A strong subtropical
ridge north of Lester should continue to steer the hurricane nearly
due west for the next 3 days.  After that time, a probable binary
interaction with Madeline should result in a west-northwestward
shift in the cyclone's heading as it approaches the Hawaiian
Islands.  Except for the UKMET and HWRF models, the guidance is
relatively tightly clustered through 5 days.  The NHC track forecast
is nearly identical to the previous one and is closest to a blend of
the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

In general, Lester should be embedded in a light easterly shear
environment during the next several days while it moves over nearly
constant sea surface temperatures between 26-27 deg C. These
conditions suggest that Lester could maintain its current annular
characteristics for some time, even though the large-scale
environment is only marginally conducive for it to do so.  Lester's
current intensification phase has caused the NHC intensity forecast
to be increased quite a bit over the previous one.  It is also
above nearly all of the guidance throughout the period, especially
in the short term, given the tendency of forecasts for annular
hurricanes to overestimate their future filling rate.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 18.0N 127.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 18.0N 129.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 18.1N 132.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 18.1N 134.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  31/0600Z 18.1N 137.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 18.2N 141.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  02/0600Z 18.7N 146.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  03/0600Z 20.2N 151.4W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain