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Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 200836
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082017
200 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017

It has been difficult to locate the center this evening, and the
circulation of the depression appears to be limited to a shallow
layer near the surface.  The cloud pattern is unchanged and deep
convection remains limited to a single band in the southwestern
quadrant.  Satellite intensity estimates remain largely unchanged
since the previous advisory, and the initial intensity is held at
25 kt.

There is no change to the intensity forecast thinking. A combination
of shear from an upper-level low to the north and interaction with
Tropical Storm Greg to the east should prevent the depression from
gaining any organization, causing the system to gradually weaken.
Most of the dynamical guidance suggests that the cyclone will no
longer have a well-defined center within the next 48 hours or so,
and only a slight decrease in convective organization would cause
the system to become a remnant low.  A WindSat overpass around
0200 UTC suggested that the circulation was already becoming
elongated, so dissipation could occur sooner than indicated.

The initial motion remains 245/5 kt.  The depression is still
expected to be advected generally southwestward, around the
circulation of Tropical Storm Greg.  The track models have all
shifted slightly westward, so the NHC track forecast has been
adjusted a little in that direction, but otherwise no significant
changes have been made.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 13.7N 122.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 13.2N 123.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 12.5N 123.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 12.0N 124.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/0600Z 11.6N 124.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky