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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 231442
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Georgette's cloud pattern has transitioned to a CDO with a curved
band in the western semicircle during the past few hours.  A 0908Z
AMSR2 pass from GCOM-W1 showed a mid-level eye feature, but this was
displaced southwest of the low-level center due to about 10 kt of
northeasterly shear.  The initial intensity remains 55 kt based on
the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  There is still an
opportunity for Georgette to strengthen, as the shear is expected to
decrease below 10 kt by 12 hours while the cyclone will remain over
SSTs above 26C until about 48 hours.  The new NHC intensity forecast
remains near the high end of the guidance in the first couple of
days and is close to the HWRF model.  After 48 hours, weakening is
expected due to a combination of cooling SSTs, increasing shear and
a drier more stable atmosphere.  During this time, the new NHC
forecast is lower, trending toward the latest LGEM output.

With the help of the above-mentioned AMSR pass, the initial motion
is estimated to be 290/11.  There is no change to the track forecast
reasoning, as Georgette will be steered by a strong mid-level ridge
to the north that will weaken and shift westward during the next
several days.  This should result in a continued west-northwestward
motion for the next 36 hours, followed by a northwestward motion at
48 and 72 hours with a decrease in forward speed.  A turn back
toward the west-northwest is expected at days 4 and 5 as the ridge
rebuilds to the north.  The track model guidance is in generally
good agreement on this scenario, but there is some cross-track
spread between the HWRF and COAMPS-TC on the left side of the
guidance envelope and the ECMWF on the right side.  The new NHC
track is largely an update of the previous one with with a slight
southward adjustment toward the latest multi-model consensus.  This
forecast is close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF tracks.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 13.9N 121.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 14.4N 122.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 15.3N 124.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 16.2N 126.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 17.1N 127.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 18.2N 128.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 19.0N 130.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 20.0N 133.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan