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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 290833
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
200 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

Microwave data show that the depression continues to be sheared
with the low-level center located to the northwest of a patch of
deep convection. Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB support
keeping the depression at 30 kt at this time. Although the shear is
forecast to decrease, the depression is moving toward a dry and
stable environment. Consequently, the NHC forecast calls for
dissipation in about 48 hours. This is consistent with the trend of
the global models and the intensity consensus. In fact, global
models depict the cyclone as a westward moving trough by 48 hours.

The depression is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 10 kt.
Because the depression is forecast to weaken and become a shallow
cyclone, it is expected to be steered westward by the prevailing
low-level flow until dissipation.  There are no important changes to
the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 16.9N 132.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 16.9N 134.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 16.9N 136.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 16.7N 140.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 29-Jul-2015 08:33:40 UTC