Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion
WTPZ43 KNHC 290833
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015
200 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015
Microwave data show that the depression continues to be sheared
with the low-level center located to the northwest of a patch of
deep convection. Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB support
keeping the depression at 30 kt at this time. Although the shear is
forecast to decrease, the depression is moving toward a dry and
stable environment. Consequently, the NHC forecast calls for
dissipation in about 48 hours. This is consistent with the trend of
the global models and the intensity consensus. In fact, global
models depict the cyclone as a westward moving trough by 48 hours.
The depression is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 10 kt.
Because the depression is forecast to weaken and become a shallow
cyclone, it is expected to be steered westward by the prevailing
low-level flow until dissipation. There are no important changes to
the previous forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0900Z 16.9N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 16.9N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 16.9N 136.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 16.7N 140.0W 25 KT 30 MPH