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Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 300236
TCDEP3

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
800 PM PDT MON AUG 29 2016

Lester is a powerful category 4 hurricane.  The eye of the
hurricane, which is now about 20 n mi wide, has expanded and cleared
out during the last several hours.  Visible satellite images also
indicate that mesovorticies exist within the eye.  The convective
pattern has been very symmetric, and the hurricane continues to have
an annular appearance in satellite images. The latest Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB were 6.5/127 kt and 5.5/102 kt,
respectively.  Based on these estimates and automated Dvorak values
from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, the initial wind speed
is raised a little to 120 kt.  Lester is estimated to have
strengthened at an impressive rate of 45 kt during the past 24
hours.

The major hurricane is likely near its peak intensity, but
fluctuations in strength are possible in the short term.  Beyond
that time, marginally warm sea surface temperatures and a stable air
mass suggest that Lester will likely weaken gradually during the
next several days.  The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and is fairly close to the intensity model consensus.

Lester continues to move due westward about 12 kt on the south
side of a strong mid-level high pressure system.  A continued
westward track at about the same forward speed is predicted during
the next few days while the system remains to the south of the
ridge. After that time, a slight turn toward the west-northwest is
likely due to some interaction with another tropical cyclone,
Madeline, to its west-southwest.  The models remain tightly
clustered, and the NHC official track forecast lies near the middle
of the guidance envelope.  This forecast takes Lester close to the
Hawaiian Islands in about 5 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 18.1N 131.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 18.2N 133.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  31/0000Z 18.2N 136.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  31/1200Z 18.3N 138.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 18.3N 140.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 19.0N 145.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 20.3N 149.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  04/0000Z 22.0N 154.8W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi