Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression RACHEL Forecast Discussion


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 301451
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Satellite imagery indicates that deep convection associated with
Rachel dissipated almost 12 hours ago, with the cyclone now
consisting of a tight swirl of low- to middle-level clouds. Dvorak
intensity estimates continue to decrease, and the initial intensity
is lowered to 30 kt in agreement with the latest satellite
classifications.  A continuation of southwesterly shear of around 30
kt and very unfavorable thermodynamic factors suggest that deep
convection is unlikely to redevelop, and Rachel should weaken
into a remnant low later today.  Global model guidance shows the
remnant low degenerating into an open trough in about 2 days and
dissipating shortly thereafter.  The official intensity forecast is
close to the previous forecast and the multi-model consensus.

Rachel has been nearly stationary for the last 6-12 hours, trapped
in an environment of weak steering.  The shallow cyclone should
drift west-southwestward and westward during the next couple of days
around the eastern side of a weak low-level ridge until dissipation.
The track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one,
nearly between the ECMWF and GFS model solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 23.1N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 23.0N 117.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  01/1200Z 22.9N 118.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  02/0000Z 22.7N 118.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/1200Z 22.5N 119.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Ramos



Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 30-Sep-2014 14:51:12 UTC