Tropical Storm Barbara Forecast Discussion
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000 WTPZ42 KNHC 090846 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 200 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025 Barbara has become a bit better organized over the past 6 hours with a large central dense overcast and an increasing area of cloud tops in the -75C to -85C range. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 55-65 kt, and the latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 46-68 kt. Based on the improved banding and cold cloud tops, as well as the persistence of this organization, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt for this advisory. There is some uncertainty in the initial position since there have been no recent available microwave passes, but the best motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 295 degrees at 10 kt. The global models show a strong 500 mb ridge to the north of Barbara, which should help maintain Barbara on a general path toward the west-northwest for the next few days. The GFS model continues to be the fastest and farthest left model. The GFS appears to have a more realistic solution compared to the ECMWF, and was stronger at the initialization time. The new NHC forecast is slightly faster and a bit to the left of the previous official forecast and is in fairly good agreement with an average of the simple and corrected consensus models. Barbara only has about 12 more hours to strengthen before it starts moving into cooler waters. This should be enough time for Barbara to strengthen to a hurricane. The cooler water should cause weakening to begin tonight or on Tuesday. The dynamical hurricane models and global models all show Barbara weakening below tropical storm strength by 48 hours, and the cyclone is likely to lose its convection and become a remnant low around that time. The new NHC forecast shows a faster weakening and quicker dissipation than the previous official forecast since the dynamical guidance is now in good agreement on this scenario. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 16.9N 106.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 17.6N 107.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 18.8N 108.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 19.8N 109.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 20.3N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 11/1800Z 20.5N 111.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen