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Tropical Depression Norma Forecast Discussion


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Tropical Depression Norma Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172017
900 AM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Norma continues to produce a small area of deep convection near
and to the east of the estimated low-level center.  The initial
intensity is held at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data and a
blend of the Dvorak final T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.  Norma
is currently over 26 deg C SSTs, and it will be headed toward even
cooler waters during the next couple of days.  These unfavorable
oceanic conditions combined with a dry atmosphere should cause Norma
to continue weakening, and the depression will likely become a
remnant low in about 24 hours or sooner.  The global models show the
remnant low opening into a trough by 48 hours.

The depression is moving westward at 4 kt.  A west-northwestward to
northwestward motion within the low-level flow is expected until
the system dissipates.  The NHC track forecast lies near the middle
of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 21.6N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 21.8N 115.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 22.2N 115.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  21/0000Z 22.8N 116.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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