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Tropical Storm FRANK Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 240240
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
900 PM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Convection associated with Frank has again increased this evening,
although microwave imagery indicates that it remains south of the
low-level center due to moderate northeasterly shear.  Various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates average near
55 kt, and that remains the initial intensity.

The center of Frank has wobbled a bit during the past few hours,
but a longer-term motion is 305/7, which is a little to the right
of the previous advisory.  Frank should move slowly to the
west-northwest or west through the forecast period on the south side
of the subtropical ridge over the northeastern Pacific.  The new
forecast track is nudged a little north of the previous track early
in the forecast period based on the initial position and motion, and
then is near the previous track toward the end of the forecast
period.

Frank should be over sea surface temperatures of higher than 26 deg
C for about 48 more hours.  However, it appears unlikely that the
current shear will decrease enough to allow Frank to strengthen into
a hurricane during that time.  The new intensity forecast follows
the previous forecast, as well as the SHIPS and LGEM models, in
keeping the intensity at 55 kt for 24 hours, followed by slight
weakening from 36-48 hours.  After 48 hours, decreasing sea surface
temperatures and encroaching dry air should cause Frank to decay,
with the cyclone forecast to become a remnant low by 120 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 19.6N 111.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 20.5N 113.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 20.9N 114.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 20.9N 115.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 21.0N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 22.0N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 23.0N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven