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Hurricane POLO Forecast Discussion

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WTPZ42 KNHC 180235

800 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

The tropical cyclone's cloud pattern is gradually becoming better
organized, with increased convective banding.  Subjective Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB as well as objective
estimates from CIMSS are a consensus 65 kt.  Therefore Polo is being
upgraded, and it becomes the eleventh hurricane of this active
eastern North Pacific season.  There is moderate northeasterly shear
over the system, but the shear is not expected to be strong enough
to prevent some additional intensification over the next 24 hours
or so.  Later in the forecast period, a somewhat drier and more
stable air mass is expected to cause slow weakening.  The official
intensity forecast is close to the latest Decay-SHIPS model
guidance, and is similar to the previous NHC wind speed forecast.

Based on recent center fixes, Polo is located slightly to the south
of the previous track, and the initial motion is west-northwestward,
or 300/9 kt.  A mid-tropospheric ridge extending westward from
northwestern mainland Mexico across the Baja California peninsula
should cause the tropical cyclone to move on a west-northwestward or
northwestward heading for the next several days.  The official track
forecast has been shifted slightly south of the previous one, mainly
due to the more southward position of Polo at this time.  The
current NHC track prediction lies quite close to the GFS/ECMWF
consensus and the Florida State University Superensemble.


INIT  18/0300Z 16.4N 104.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 17.1N 105.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 17.7N 106.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 18.4N 107.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 19.2N 108.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 20.6N 111.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  22/0000Z 21.6N 113.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  23/0000Z 22.0N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

Forecaster Pasch

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Page last modified: Thursday, 18-Sep-2014 02:35:58 UTC