Skip Navigation Links   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE Forecast Discussion

Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  

WTPZ42 KNHC 252033

200 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

The low-level center of the cyclone is located to the west of the
convection due to westerly wind shear. The cloud pattern is not
well organized with the outflow very limited at this time.
T-numbers are still 2.5 on the Dvorak scale, and a recent
scatterometer overpass still indicates 35-40 kt winds.  The initial
intensity is thus kept at 40 knots. Global models as well as
statistical guidance continue to forecast an unfavorable environment
near the cyclone. In addition, the cyclone is heading to an area of
lower sea surface temperatures. This should result in gradual
weakening during the next few days.

Genevieve has slowed down a little bit and is now moving westward at
6 knots.  An eastward-moving trough in the westerlies is weakening
the subtropical ride north of the cyclone, and consequently, the
cyclone is forecast to decrease in forward speed during the next day
or so. The ridge is forecast to rebuild westward as the trough moves
out, and this pattern will keep Genevieve on a general west to
west-northwest track for the next 5 days.  During the latter portion
of the forecast, the cyclone will likely become a shallow
post-tropical cyclone, steered westward by the low-level flow. The
official forecast continues very close to the multi-model consensus


INIT  25/2100Z 12.2N 136.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 12.3N 136.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 12.5N 137.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 12.9N 139.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 13.3N 140.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 13.8N 144.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 14.0N 148.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/1800Z 14.0N 151.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Avila

Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 25-Jul-2014 20:33:59 UTC