000
WTPZ42 KNHC 010235
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072025
500 PM HST Thu Jul 31 2025

Gil is gradually becoming better organized, with increased evidence 
of banding features over the eastern and southern portions of the 
circulation.  However, the low-level center of the storm has been 
partially exposed, possibly due to drier air being entrained into 
the core.  Upper-level outflow is fairly well defined over the 
eastern and southern semicircles, but a bit restricted to the 
northwest.  The current advisory intensity is raised to 50 kt based 
on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB and 
objective estimates from UW-CIMSS.  In general, the objective 
intensity estimates are somewhat lower than the subjective values.

The storm is continuing on a west-northwestward heading, but at a 
faster forward speed of around 13 kt.  A fairly strong 
mid-tropospheric ridge is expected to prevail to the north of Gil 
for the next few days, which should maintain the west-northwest 
track.  Most of the track guidance models indicate additional
acceleration over the next 48 hours, and so does the official 
forecast.  This is also in good agreement with the latest corrected 
consensus, HCCA, prediction.  By late in the forecast period, the 
system will likely turn to a more westward track following the 
low-level flow.

Further strengthening is likely while the tropical cyclone moves 
over sufficiently warm waters.  Vertical wind shear is predicted to 
decrease to very low values during the next couple of days and the 
atmospheric environment should also remain moist during this time.  
However, SSTs along the path of Gil are likely to decrease below 25 
degrees C in about 48 hours.  This should somewhat counteract the 
other favorable environmental conditions.  The marginal ocean 
temperatures are likely one of the reasons that the intensity 
guidance does not show a lot of strengthening.  The official 
forecast is on the high end of the model guidance envelope, as in 
the previous advisory package.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 14.2N 118.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 15.1N 120.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 16.4N 123.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 17.9N 127.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 19.4N 130.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  03/1200Z 20.6N 133.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 21.7N 137.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 22.9N 142.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/0000Z 23.9N 147.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch