Skip Navigation Links   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Discussion

Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  

WTPZ42 KNHC 210234

800 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Polo continues to be buffeted by 25 to 30 kt of easterly shear, and
the cloud pattern features only small patches of disorganized deep
convection west of the center location. Dvorak estimates are slowly
decreasing, and the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt based on
the latest estimate from TAFB. Given the continued shear and a track
over cooler waters, Polo is forecast to gradually weaken to a
depression and then to a remnant low by 36 hours, but this could
occur sooner.

The initial motion estimate is 300/06. Polo moved a little to the
right of the previous forecast track over the past few hours, but
the overall track forecast reasoning remains unchanged. The
weakening cyclone will continue west-northwestward and then turn
westward as a mid-level ridge builds to the north during the next
couple of days. Afterward, the weak remnant low should turn
southwestward under the influence of a low-level ridge to the west.
The guidance has shifted to the right this cycle, showing a broader
westward and then southwestward turn through dissipation. Based on
this shift, and the initial position and motion, the NHC track has
been shifted about 30 miles to the right of the previous official
forecast toward the latest TVCE multi-model consensus through 48
hours, and is largely an update of the previous forecast after that

Based on the forecast track and wind radii, tropical storm force
winds are expected to remain south of the Baja California peninsula.
Since any unexpected deviation to the north of the forecast track
could still bring tropical storm force winds to the coast, the
Government of Mexico is keeping the tropical storm watch until Polo
begins to move away from Baja California Sur.


INIT  21/0300Z 21.6N 109.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 22.1N 110.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 22.5N 112.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 22.6N 113.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/0000Z 22.3N 114.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  24/0000Z 21.5N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Brennan

Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 21-Sep-2014 02:34:13 UTC