394 
WTPZ42 KNHC 092032
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022025
200 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025
 
Since the last advisory Barbara has become a little less organized. 
Latest GOES satellite imagery depicts the system starting to ingest 
some drier air which has caused fragmented banding. However, a 
central dense overcast has remained over the tiny inner core. The 
satellite intensity estimates have decreased slightly from the 
previous advisory ranging from 50 to 65 kt. Using these estimates, 
the intensity is held at 65 kt, although this may be generous.

A mid-level ridge located over Mexico should continue to steer the 
system northwestward over the next couple of days. As Barbara begins 
to weaken into a shallow vortex and slow down, it will be steered by 
the low-level wind flow. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to 
the previous one, and close to the simple and corrected consensus.
 
Barbara likely has peaked as a short-lived hurricane. The 
environmental conditions will becoming increasingly hostile along 
the forecast track with the storm crossing into cooler SSTs and into 
a drier, more stable air mass. This will cause the system to 
steadily weaken, lose convective organization, and become post 
tropical by 36 h. The latest NHC forecast shows the system opening 
into a trough by 60 h and dissipating.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 18.2N 106.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 19.2N 107.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 20.5N 109.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 21.4N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/1800Z 21.8N 110.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Mora/Kelly