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Tropical Storm LOWELL Forecast Discussion

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WTPZ42 KNHC 230246

800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Convection associated with Lowell continues to decrease as the
circulation moves over decreasing sea surface temperatures, with
the surviving convection now in a band over the eastern semicircle.
The initial intensity is reduced to 45 kt based on a blend of
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.  Lowell is
forecast to degenerate to a remnant low with the remaining
convection dissipating in about 36 hours.  However, since the sea
surface temperatures along the forecast track are 22-24 deg C,
this could occur anytime between now and then.

The initial motion is 305/7. Lowell should continue moving generally
northwestward during the next 36 hours as a mid-level ridge to the
east builds westward. After that time, the weakening cyclone is
forecast to turn toward the west-northwest while it comes under the
influence of a low-level ridge to the north.  The track guidance
between 48-120 hours has shifted a little to the left since the last
advisory. The new forecast track is also nudged to the left, but
lies a little to the right of the model consensus and the center of
the guidance envelope.


INIT  23/0300Z 22.9N 125.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 23.7N 126.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 24.6N 127.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 25.4N 128.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/0000Z 25.9N 129.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/0000Z 27.0N 132.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/0000Z 29.0N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/0000Z 31.0N 141.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Beven

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Page last modified: Saturday, 23-Aug-2014 02:46:39 UTC