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Tropical Storm FRANK Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230832
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
300 AM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016

The cloud pattern has changed little during the past several hours.
Microwave data continue to show that the low-level center is
on the northern edge of the deep convection due to shear. An
average of the latest satellite intensity estimates indicates that
the winds remain at 55 kt at this time. The environment continues to
be favorable for strengthening, and only a small decrease in the
shear should result in Frank becoming a hurricane. In fact, NHC
forecasts this to occur within the next 24 hours. Intensity guidance
is not aggressive, and most of the models suggest that Frank will
reach its peak intensity of around 70 kt in about 36 hours with
weakening after that time.  The NHC forecast follows that guidance
trend.

Frank is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 7 kt.
The cyclone is embedded within the flow around a strong subtropical
ridge extending from the western United States westward across
the Pacific. This steering pattern is forecast to persist, and will
force Frank to move on a general west-northwest to west track during
the next several days. Since the track models are tightly clustered
during the next 2 to 3 days, there is high confidence that the
cyclone will continue on the same general track. Frank will be
passing well south of the Baja California peninsula during the next
several hours and be near Socorro Island later today. The NHC
forecast is very close to the latest multi-model consensus.

Swells associated with Frank are probably already affecting the
coasts of the southern Baja California peninsula and the state of
Sinaloa.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 18.5N 109.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 19.0N 110.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 19.7N 112.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 20.2N 113.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 20.7N 114.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 20.7N 116.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 21.0N 118.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 21.5N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila