000
WTPZ42 KNHC 311435
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072025
500 AM HST Thu Jul 31 2025
 
Gil continues to become better organized this morning.  
Geostationary infrared imagery show steady bursts of embedded deep 
convection with cloud top temperatures less than -80 degrees 
Celsius.  Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates 
have increased this cycle and range between 35 to 46 kt.  The 
initial intensity is raised to 45 kt, closest to the TAFB and 
UW-CIMSS DPRINT estimates.
 
The storm is moving at 280/12 kt along the southern side of a 
subtropical ridge.  This mid-level ridge will steer Gil generally 
west-northwestward for the next few days, with some increase in 
forward motion.  By day 4, the weaker, more shallow cyclone is 
expected to turn more westward in the low-level flow.  The track 
guidance envelope remains tightly clustered and only minor changes 
were made to the latest NHC track forecast.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear generally conducive for 
Gil to continue strengthening.  Statistical indicators even suggest 
an above average possibility of strong-to-rapid intensification in 
the next day or so.  Thus, the predicted peak intensity has been 
raised to 75 kt in 36 h based on these factors and an overall 
increase in the model intensity guidance.  Gil is still expected to 
reach cooler waters and a dry, stable airmass in a couple of days 
which will cause steady weakening.  The latest NHC intensity 
forecast now shows Gil becoming a post-tropical cyclone by day 4, 
when global model show the cyclone will lose all convection.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/1500Z 13.2N 116.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 13.9N 118.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 15.0N 120.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 16.4N 124.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 17.8N 127.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  03/0000Z 19.2N 130.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 20.3N 134.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 21.7N 140.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  05/1200Z 22.2N 145.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci