Hurricane Barbara Forecast Discussion
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837 WTPZ42 KNHC 091437 TCDEP2 Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 800 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025 Barbara has become better organized as depicted in an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass, which shows the low-level center tucked under a large central dense overcast. The microwave imagery also indicates that a partial eyewall has formed, although it was open on the northern side. The latest subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB was T4.0/65 kt, and the objective satellite intensity aids from UW-CIMSS range from 55-65 kt. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity is increased to 65 kt for this advisory. This makes Barbara the first hurricane of the 2025 east Pacific hurricane season. The storm is estimated to be moving more northwestward at 310/9 kt. Barbara continues to be steered by a mid-level ridge located over Mexico and it should continue to move northwestward over the next few days. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to be on opposite sides of the guidance envelope, and this is mainly due to differences in when Barbara weakens and becomes steered by the low-level wind flow. The latest NHC track forecast was shifted slightly to the right, closer to the simple and corrected consensus. Barbara is likely near its peak intensity, as it only has about 6-12 more hours of a favorable environment. Along the forecast track, the system will be crossing over increasingly cooler sea surface temperatures overnight. Around the same time, the mid-level relative humidity values will begin to drop. This will cause the system to steadily weaken and lose convective organization. The storm is now forecast to become post-tropical in 36 h, and dissipate into an open trough by 60 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 17.6N 106.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 18.4N 107.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 19.6N 108.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 20.8N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 11/1200Z 21.2N 110.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams