000
WTPZ42 KNHC 100847
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022025
200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025

Barbara has lost a significant portion of its convection over the 
past 12 hours or so.  The latest current intensity estimates from 
TAFB and SAB are still in the 55-65 kt range, but the latest 
objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the 45-55 kt 
range.  Based on the degraded convective appearance on geostationary 
satellite imagery and the latest intensity estimates, the initial 
intensity is set to 50 kt.

Barbara has been moving toward the northwest a little slower than 
before, or 310/7 kt.  Barbara is forecast to continue moving 
generally toward the northwest as it is steered by weak ridging to 
its north and Tropical Storm Cosme, located to its southwest.  Only 
very minor adjustments have been made to the previous NHC track 
forecast, which lies near the various consensus models.

The storm already has crossed the 26C isotherm and will continue 
moving over progressively colder water over the next day.  The cold 
water will cause Barbara to continue weakening.  The NHC intensity 
forecast shows a slightly faster rate of weakening than the previous 
official forecast, and is near the latest intensity model consensus. 
 The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite products both show the 
cyclone losing its convection entirely by about 24 hours, with 
dissipation in 36 hours.  The NHC forecast follows the scenario 
depicted by those models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0900Z 19.1N 108.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 20.1N 109.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 20.9N 110.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Gibbs