578 
WTPZ42 KNHC 081514
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022025
900 AM CST Sun Jun 08 2025
 
Barbara continues to become better organized this morning with deep 
convection bursting near the low-level center. Earlier AMSR2 
microwave imagery depicts improved curved banding with an inner core 
in the formative stage.  This structure has led to an improved 
satellite depiction and intensification. Subjective and objective 
intensity estimates have continued to increase this morning, using a 
blend of these estimates the intensity is set to 50 kt for this 
advisory.

The system is currently within a favorable environment with warm sea 
surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear. Further 
strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, and this could 
occur rather quickly given the small inner core of Barbara. The 
latest NHC intensity forecast has increased slightly form the 
previous one and shows Barbara becoming a hurricane in 12 hrs. 
However, there are some intensity aids that are a little higher than 
the NHC forecast, including some explicitly forecasting Rapid 
Intensification (RI). RI is possible, and this is something we will 
have to monitor over the succeeding forecasts. After 24-36 hrs, the 
system will be moving over cooler waters and into a drier mid-level 
environment. These factors will cause the system to weaken and 
eventually struggle to produce convection. Global model infrared 
simulated satellite images depicts the system losing convection by 
72 h. By day 4, the system should degenerate into a remnant low, and 
dissipate by day 5 as it interacts with the circulation of TD 
Three-E.

Barbara is moving west-northwestward (295/10 kt) on the south side 
of a mid-level ridge, and this motion should continue over the next 
couple of days. The NHC forecast is near the previous one and 
lies close to the simple and corrected consensus aids. Given the 
forecast track and wind radii, tropical-storm-force winds are not 
expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico. By Tuesday, the 
track forecast becomes more complicated given the potential for 
binary interaction between Barbara and TD Three-E. Because of this, 
the long-range track forecast could be subject to large future 
adjustments depending on the evolution of TD Three-E.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 15.7N 103.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 16.4N 104.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 17.6N 106.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 18.6N 107.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 19.4N 109.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  11/0000Z 19.5N 111.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 19.5N 112.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  12/1200Z 19.1N 114.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly