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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jova Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 140231
TCDEP2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jova Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122017
800 PM PDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Jova lacks sufficient deep convection to be classified as a
tropical cyclone, so the system is being designated as a remnant
low.  Although the low may produce sporadic bursts of deep
convection over the next day or two, the dry and stable environment
should prevent the system from coming back.  Based on the ECMWF
model prediction, the remnant low should dissipate after 72 hours,
if not sooner.

The low is moving westward or 270/12 kt.  A mainly easterly
low-level environmental flow should move the system on a westward to
west-southwestward track until dissipation.  The official track
forecast is similar to the previous one.

This is the last advisory on Jova.  For additional information on
the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 20.5N 119.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  14/1200Z 20.2N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  15/0000Z 19.9N 123.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  15/1200Z 19.5N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/0000Z 19.0N 128.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/0000Z 18.0N 132.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch