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Tropical Storm LOWELL Forecast Discussion

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WTPZ42 KNHC 220246

800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

Lowell as now weakening as about half of the circulation is over
sea surface temperatures of 26C or colder.  While microwave imagery
continues to show a 75 n mi wide eye, the eyewall convection has
warmed and become asymmetric.  Satellite intensity estimates are now
55 kt from TAFB and 65 kt from SAB.  The initial intensity is
therefore decreased to 60 kt.

The storm is now moving 325/5.  The track forecast reasoning remains
unchanged, as Lowell should move a little faster toward the
northwest due to a ridge rebuilding to the east and north of the
cyclone.  Late in the period a shallower Lowell should be steered
more toward the west-northwest by the low-level ridge to the north.
There is no significant change to the track guidance since the last
advisory, and the new forecast track lies close to the previous
track and near the center of the guidance envelope.

Lowell is expected to remain in a light shear environment for the
next few days, with the intensity being controlled by decreasing sea
surface temperatures along the forecast track.  The new intensity
forecast is an update of the previous forecast and calls for Lowell
to become a remnant low in about 72 hours.  It is possible that the
associated convection could dissipate earlier than currently
forecast, with Lowell briefly becoming a gale-force post-tropical


INIT  22/0300Z 20.9N 122.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 21.7N 123.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 22.8N 125.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 23.9N 126.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 25.0N 128.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 26.5N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0000Z 28.5N 133.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/0000Z 30.0N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Beven

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Page last modified: Friday, 22-Aug-2014 02:46:44 UTC