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Tropical Depression Greg Forecast Discussion

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Tropical Depression Greg Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017
200 AM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Even with the help of microwave imagery, the center of Greg is
difficult to locate due to the disorganization of the associated
convection. The best estimate is that the center is to the
southeast of the remaining convection.  The initial intensity
remains 30 kt for this advisory, which could be generous.  A
combination of continued southerly to westerly shear, a dry air
mass, and cool sea surface temperatures along the forecast track
should cause the cyclone to stop producing convection and degenerate
to a remnant low in about 24 h.  The low is subsequently expected
to weaken to a trough in 72-96 h.

The initial motion is 305/12.  Low- to mid-level troughing north of
the depression should maintain a northwestward or west-northwestward
motion for the next 12-24 hours.  After that, the remnant low
should turn west-southwestward in the trade winds.  The forecast
track lies near the model consensus and is similar to the previous


INIT  26/0900Z 17.8N 139.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 18.2N 140.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 18.4N 142.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  27/1800Z 18.3N 144.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/0600Z 17.9N 145.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/0600Z 17.0N 148.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Beven