Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm LOWELL Forecast Discussion


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 222034
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Convection continues to gradually wane around the large circulation
of Lowell. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on a blend of
the latest Dvorak Final-T and current intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB. The cyclone is now over waters around 25C and will be
moving over waters of 22-23C by 36 hours. This should results in
Lowell becomes a post-tropical cyclone by that time, followed by
weakening to a remnant low in about 2 days.

The initial motion is 310/08. Lowell should continue moving
generally northwestward during the next 36 hours as a mid-level
ridge to the east builds westward. After that time, the weakening
cyclone is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest as it comes
under the influence of a low-level ridge to the north. The new NHC
forecast is a little to the left of the previous NHC track to
account for the initial position and it close to a consensus of the
GFS and ECMWF models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 22.4N 124.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 23.3N 125.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 24.4N 127.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 25.2N 128.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  24/1800Z 25.8N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/1800Z 27.0N 132.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/1800Z 29.0N 136.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/1800Z 31.0N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan




Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 22-Aug-2014 20:34:22 UTC