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Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 220233
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

Only a very small area of convection remains, and it is associated
with Polo's remnant mid-level circulation about 120 n mi
west-northwest of the exposed low-level center.  Despite the
current structure, the maximum winds probably have not decreased
significantly since the earlier ASCAT data, so the initial
intensity is held at 35 kt for now.  Although the cyclone could
still produce some bursts of convection since it will remain over
26C water, persistent shear is likely to cause the winds to
continue to decrease gradually during the next few days.  Polo will
likely become a post-tropical remnant low within the next 24 hours
if deep convection doesn't redevelop soon.  Dissipation is expected
by late Thursday.

Polo appears to have sped up a bit, possibly due to the low-level
center being tugged westward by the earlier burst of deep
convection, and the initial motion is 290/9 kt.  As the cyclone
weakens, it will become increasingly steered by low-level northerly
flow off the coast of the Baja California peninsula.  This will
force Polo to turn westward and slow down on Monday and then turn
southwestward by late Tuesday.  The updated NHC track forecast is
similar to the previous one and is close to the multi-model
consensus TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 22.9N 113.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 23.0N 114.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 22.8N 115.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/1200Z 22.4N 116.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0000Z 21.9N 116.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0000Z 20.3N 117.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg




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Page last modified: Monday, 22-Sep-2014 02:33:25 UTC