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Tropical Storm Greg Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 250854
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017
200 AM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Convection associated with Greg is currently very disorganized and
confined to the northwestern quadrant.  The initial intensity
remains at 40 kt based on a blend of various satellite intensity
estimates.  Greg is forecast to move into a drier air mass,
encounter increasing shear, and move over decreasing sea surface
temperatures during the next 48-72 h, and this combination should
result in the system degenerating to a remnant low during this
time.  The new intensity forecast is changed little from the
previous forecast except to make the cyclone a remnant low at 48 h.

The initial motion is 295/8.  Greg should move northwestward for
the next day or so on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge.
After that, a turn to the west and then west-southwest is expected
when Greg becomes a shallow system and is steered by the low-level
trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is again a little to the
north of the previous forecast and lies a little to the south
of the various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 15.2N 135.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 16.0N 136.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 16.9N 137.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 17.5N 139.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 17.6N 140.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/0600Z 17.0N 144.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/0600Z 16.0N 146.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/0600Z 15.0N 149.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven