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Tropical Storm FRANK Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 280833
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
200 AM PDT THU JUL 28 2016

All of the deep convection associated with Frank has dissipated,
and since the cyclone is moving over waters cooler than 23 deg C,
regeneration of thunderstorms within the circulation is not
anticipated. Therefore, the cyclone is likely to degenerate into a
post-tropical remnant low pressure area later today.  A partial
ASCAT pass suggested that the maximum winds were near 35 kt and
these tropical-storm-force winds were likely contained to the
northeast quadrant of Frank.  A continued spin down of the
circulation should occur over the next few days with the system
dissipating in 72 hours or so.

The center is difficult to locate but the best guess of initial
motion is about 290/8 kt.  Frank, or its remnant, is forecast to
turn toward the west and then west-southwest and decelerate,
following the relatively weak low-level tradewind flow.  The
official forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF tracks.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 23.6N 123.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 24.0N 124.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  29/0600Z 24.2N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/1800Z 24.3N 126.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/0600Z 24.0N 127.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch