Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 301435
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
800 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015


Andres has strengthened a little more this morning.  The cloud
pattern has become better organized with the eye of the hurricane
intermittently appearing in satellite images.  Recent microwave
data show a well-defined eyewall, but most of the banding features
are concentrated on the east side of the circulation, likely due to
northwesterly shear. The initial intensity is raised to 90 kt, in
agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, making
Andres a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale.

The hurricane still has about another day over warm water and the
SHIPS model lowers the current shear during that time. Therefore,
some additional short-term strengthening is possible even though
none of the models suggest intensification.  After that time,
however, Andres is expected to move over progressively cooler
water and into a more stable airmass.  These unfavorable conditions
should promote a steady weakening trend.  The official forecast is
a little higher than the previous one during the next 36 hours to
account for the higher initial intensity.

Andres is moving northwestward at about 6 kt toward a weakness in
the subtropical ridge.  A turn to the west-northwest is expected to
occur tonight or on Sunday when the ridge builds to the north
of the hurricane, and that general motion should continue for the
remainder of the forecast period.  Little change was made to the
previous forecast track, and it lies close to the middle of the
guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 14.5N 115.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 15.1N 116.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 15.8N 118.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 16.3N 119.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 16.8N 120.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 18.2N 123.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 19.1N 127.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 19.2N 129.6W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 30-May-2015 14:35:31 UTC