000
WTPZ41 KNHC 311437
TCDEP1
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012025
800 AM MST Sat May 31 2025
 
Cool waters, dry mid-level air, and strong vertical wind shear
have taken their toll on Alvin.  The system has been devoid of deep
convection for more than 12 hours, and has become a swirl of low- to
mid-level clouds.  The initial intensity has been lowered to a
possibly generous 30 kt.  Continued hostile environmental
conditions are expected to prevent any return of deep convection,
and therefore this will be the final advisory on the system as it
has become a post-tropical remnant low.
 
The low should continue to spin down as it moves slowly northward
today. Global model guidance indicates that the low will open up
into a trough of low pressure as it passes near the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula in about 24 hours.
 
Swells generated by Alvin are expected to persist along portions of
the west-central mainland Mexico and southern Baja California 
coasts through the weekend, creating potentially dangerous surf and 
rip current conditions.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/1500Z 20.7N 109.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  01/0000Z 21.8N 109.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown