Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Discussion
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545 WTPZ41 KNHC 301439 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 900 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 Flossie continues to consolidate this morning with GOES-19 infrared imagery showing deep convection bursting over the low-level center. A SSMIS microwave pass from 1117 UTC this morning depicts the system continues to become better organized, with curved banding and potentially an inner core trying to develop. Latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased this advisory to T/3.0. UW-CIMMS objective estimates range from 45 to 53 kt. Given the improving structure and recent satellite trends, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt for this advisory. Environmental conditions are favorable for steady to rapid intensification, with low vertical wind shear, plentiful moisture, and warm SSTs. The latest NHC forecast explicitly forecasts rapid intensification over the next 24 hours, and it is noted that some SHIPS guidance shows a 50-65 percent chance of a 55kt increase in the next 48 h. The NHC peak intensity forecast remains on the higher end of the intensity guidance near the HCCA corrected consensus. In about 48-60 hours, environmental conditions become increasingly less favorable along the forecast track, with drier air and cooler sea surface temperatures, which should induce a steady weakening trend. By day 4, Flossie is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone as the system will struggle to produce convection within the harsh environment. The initial estimated motion is toward the northwest, or 310/9 kt. A northwest to west-northwest motion is expected throughout the forecast period, as Flossie is steered around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. The NHC track forecast near the previous and lies closest to the HCCA corrected consensus aids. Residents of Mexico should stay updated on the latest forecast. A shift in track to the right of the official forecast could bring more significant impacts to the coast of southwestern Mexico. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie should bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in steep terrain. 2. A tropical storm warning is in effect for a portion of southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions are expected late today through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 15.6N 102.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 16.5N 103.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 17.4N 105.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 18.2N 106.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 19.2N 108.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 20.0N 109.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 20.9N 110.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 23.0N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 05/1200Z 24.5N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly/Nepaul