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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion

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WTPZ41 KNHC 202048

200 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

Karina's cloud pattern has continued to become a little better
organized today with a mid-level eye feature in microwave imagery
and increasing convective bands. There are no signs of shear at this
time since the outflow is fairly symmetric. Based on satellite
estimates of T3.5 on the Dvorak scale from TAFB and SAB, the initial
intensity is set at 55 knots. As long as Karina remains over warm
waters and in a weak shear environment, there is a possibility of
some strengthening, but it is more likely that the storm will
fluctuate in intensity during the next 24 hours as suggested by most
of the intensity guidance. After that time, gradual weakening should
begin as the storm moves over cooler waters.

Karina is embedded in very light steering currents, and consequently
the storm has barely moved today. Little motion is anticipated
during the next 24 hours. Karina will then begin to drift eastward,
followed by a northeastward motion with a small increase in forward
speed around the south and east sides of the large circulation of
Tropical Storm Lowell. The guidance has been very persistent with
this scenario, and the NHC forecast follows the consensus of the GFS
and the ECMWF models.


INIT  20/2100Z 15.7N 136.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 15.7N 136.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 15.2N 136.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 15.1N 135.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 15.5N 135.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  23/1800Z 17.5N 132.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  24/1800Z 21.0N 128.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  25/1800Z 27.0N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Avila

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 20-Aug-2014 20:49:11 UTC