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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion

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WTPZ41 KNHC 200841

200 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

Although Karina's low-level center is embedded beneath the cold
cirrus canopy, microwave imagery indicates that it is located on
the northeastern edge of the deep convection.  TAFB and SAB Dvorak
estimates have not changed from six hours ago, and a 0602 UTC
ASCAT pass confirmed that maximum winds are about 45 kt.  Moderate
east-northeasterly to easterly shear is expected to continue
affecting Karina during the next several days, and thermodynamic
conditions will gradually become less favorable once the cyclone
begins gaining some latitude beyond day 3.  The official NHC
intensity forecast is largely unchanged from the previous forecast,
holding Karina steady at 45 kt for the next 48 hours and then
showing weakening to a remnant low by day 5 over significantly
colder water.  This scenario is very close to the SHIPS and LGEM
models, as well as the ICON intensity consensus.

Karina continues to move slowly westward with an initial motion of
270/4 kt.  All of the track models now indicate that Karina will
slow down and turn southward, making a small counterclockwise loop
during the next 48 hours as it comes under the influence of Tropical
Storm Lowell's larger circulation.  Karina will then backtrack on
its past track, accelerating northeastward and northward between
days 3 and 5 while it swings around the south and east sides of
Lowell.  As mentioned in the previous forecast, the track guidance
had been shifting eastward in recent cycles, and that trend has
continued.  Therefore, the NHC track forecast is again pushed
eastward, although it still lies along the left side of the guidance
envelope near the ECMWF and the multi-model consensus TVCE.


INIT  20/0900Z 15.9N 135.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 15.9N 136.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 15.5N 136.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 15.2N 135.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 15.3N 135.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  23/0600Z 17.0N 132.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  24/0600Z 20.5N 129.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  25/0600Z 25.5N 129.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Berg

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 20-Aug-2014 08:42:26 UTC